根據指引,11b的收入預期相當於按年增長64%營業利潤4.83億,或44%,有望創歷史新高。而管理層在電話會議中表示下半年收入將會substantially higher than H1.粗略估算一下全年的業績,收入7.19+11+11+11 =40.19b假設營業利潤維持於44%,營業利潤將有17b.相當於按年增長4倍,比FY22增長70%!
價值求知
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Tuesday, March 12, 2024
我賣出了Nvidia
Thursday, February 1, 2024
談談AMD FY23的業績
And a longer-term question, Lisa. If I look at the success that AMD has enjoyed, its many factors, but a few of them included your early adoption of chiplets and the strong partnerships you have had with TSMC. But now we are seeing your x86 competitor Intel also adopt chiplet or tile technology as they call it.
And then, I think recently the manufacturing update they gave, they said, they are two years ahead in terms of incorporating gate all-around and backside our delivery. So, let's assume they are right and they have either caught up to TSMC or maybe they are ahead. What impact does that have on AMD in kind of the medium to longer term?
而Lisa Su答:
So, I think the longer-term question that you ask is I think we're expecting that the competition is going to be on a similar process technology and even in that case, I think we feel like we have a very strong roadmap going forward and will continue to drive both the CPU and the GPU roadmap very aggressively.
Saturday, January 20, 2024
台積電FY23全年業績 --- 走出低谷
for the full year of 2024, we forecast the overall semiconductor market, excluding memory, to increase by more than 10% year over year, while foundry industry growth is forecasted to be approximately 20%. For TSMC, supported by our technology leadership and broader customer base, we are confident to outperform the foundry industry growth. We expect our business to grow quarter over quarter throughout 2024, and our full year revenue expect to increase by low to mid 20% in U.S. dollar terms.
盈利上升,但股價下跌,原因當然是因為「股價已Priced in」,
手機銷售平均每年就賣13-14億部,這部分個人預期增長有限。
Charlie, you name my customer's name. That's my customer yet my competitor. Let me repeat, the last time when I comment on their technology, the comment stays the same, so that -- their newest technology will be very similar or equivalent to TSMC's N3P. We further checked again, we saw all the specs of the possible published in the technology, transistor technology, and everything may come and stay the same, with a big advantage in the technology maturity because of -- in 2025, when they say that their newest technology will be going on production, for TSMC, that will be the third year with a very high volume production in the fabs.
Monday, January 1, 2024
2023年結--收回失地
Stock | portfolio % |
MSFT | 12.88% |
VOO | 12.47% |
NVDA | 11.31% |
AAPL | 10.99% |
AMD | 10.94% |
TSM | 9.50% |
ADBE | 6.81% |
AMZN | 3.47% |
DDOG | 2.77% |
NTDOY | 2.60% |
1830 | 2.42% |
0900 | 1.60% |
TSLA | 0.85% |
Bond | portfolio % |
US T Note 0.75 DEC31 23 | 5.71% |
US-T GOVT Bill Jan25'24 | 5.69% |
多數市場在大多數時候是走揚的 --- 《持續買進》
Wednesday, November 29, 2023
查理芒格一代投資大師的隕落(1924-2023)
Sunday, October 1, 2023
談談Aeon(900)23年的中期業績
令人驚喜的是每股派息0.24元,比去年同期上升2仙。
股價一路下跌,令人不勝唏噓。
Aeon的信用卡業務跟香港的零售市道息息相關,
Monday, July 3, 2023
2023半年結
雖然30%的ytd算是不錯,但因為去年也蝕了30%,實際上是仍未回復去年的損失。
Sunday, June 11, 2023
Nvidia是泡沫嗎?
Friday, May 5, 2023
半導體逆風下的AMD
收入5.3b, 按年下跌9%
接下來是個人最感到困惑的一部分--來年展望。Gaming console自推出以來已踏入了第二個年頭,根據之前經驗,Gaming Console的銷售高峰期應出現在第三、四個年頭,所以個人並不太搶心來年Gaming的表現.而Embedded跟Data Center更應該是增長的主力,應可抵消Client業務的不濟。市場預期來年收入增長1X%,個人認為還算合理,但更進一步的預測只有等FY23的展望出爐。
Monday, February 20, 2023
Young man knows the rules, the old man knows the exceptions
Young man knows the rules, the old man knows the exceptions Ref:- https://steadycompounding.com/investing/djco23/
Sometimes. Coca-Cola was run for years by a man with a very severe mental impairment. And the director says that somebody was drunk [indiscernible] year after year. Now that’s my idea of a wonderful business that you can be mentally defective and run it pretty well. That was Coca-Cola in its heyday.
Friday, January 27, 2023
遲來了的台積電FY2022業績
- 預期整體2023年半導體市場(記憶體除外)會下降約4%,代工業下降約3%,但以美元計,TSM會預期會有輕微增長。
- 2023上半年收入下降中至高單位數,下半年同比上升。
- 維持長期毛利率指引53%, ROE>25%
- 2023(及往後幾年)研發費用將會同比上升20%,將佔全年營收比重上升至8-8.5%(FY22:7.2%)
- 2nm 2024試產,2025量產
- 2023 CapEx 32b-26b
Monday, January 2, 2023
2022年結--遲來了的股災
Stock | portfolio % |
MSFT | 14.11% |
VOO | 13.78% |
AAPL | 12.74% |
TSM | 11.69% |
AMD | 8.26% |
ADBE | 6.60% |
NVDA | 4.30% |
AMZN | 3.30% |
NTDOY | 3.58% |
DDOG | 2.88% |
TSLA | 0.72% |
1830 | 5.15% |
0900 | 2.36% |
Bond | portfolio % |
US T Note 0.125 JUL31 23 | 9.55% |
US T Note 0.125 APR30 23 | 0.97% |
Yes, but this is actually a good thing. It has been raining money on fools for too long. Some bankruptcies need to happen.
Also, all the Covid stay-at-home stuff has tricked people into thinking that you don’t actually need to work hard. Rude awakening inbound!
共勉之。
Tuesday, November 15, 2022
通漲與組合近況
可以見到由下半年開姑,組合跑贏納指變做同納指睇齊,反映操作上有唔少改善空間。
Stock | portfolio % |
AAPL | 14.04% |
VOO | 13.74% |
MSFT | 13.90% |
TSM | 11.08% |
AMD | 8.82% |
ADBE | 6.40% |
NVDA | 4.59% |
AMZN | 3.78% |
NTDOY | 3.39% |
DDOG | 3.09% |
TSLA | 1.10% |
1830 | 3.80% |
0900 | 2.26% |
Bond | portfolio % |
US T Note 0.125 JUL31 23 | 9.09% |
US T Note 0.125 APR30 23 | 0.92% |